I am a grinder when it comes to handicapping horses and just a regular guy.
I have been around horses since I was 13 and started learning about them from the first day I was mucking out a stall. That was at a harness track in Upstate New York, and within my first year, I learned two things from some old timers at the track. First, a guy, who I love to this day, told me that you are better off betting on thoroughbred races than harness because if you bet $100 to win on a thoroughbred race once you make that bet the odds will likely go up by post time… whereas, if you bet $100 to win on a harness race the odds on that horse are likely to plummet.
Simply put, thoroughbred tracks have bigger pools than harness tracks. The second lesson was from another old timer, who has now passed, and that was "You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races"…. meaning, dial in and pound one race rather than betting them all and your odds for winning over time will increase.
The reality is that at all the thoroughbred tracks nationwide the favorite wins 30% of the time. Look it up, it's true. I operate in the other 70%.
I find value and I research races where I think the favorite is weak and I try to beat him/her. It's nothing personal. At the end of the day, we all are trying to make some money.
My theory is that you should bet horses that are 8/5 or higher when you’re at least 70% confident the favorite is weak. Think about it… Bet five races for 100 bucks on the favorites and at least two of the five races have to come in 8-5 just to break even. If you are betting 4-1 or higher, you only have to hit one race to make your money back. If the odds are higher, you are already in the profit. With this mindset, if you can manage to hit 2 out of 5 races, you are always making good money. Hit more, then you’re having a real good day, and that happens more often than you would think.
I do 40 hours plus of research on breeding, workouts, jockey performance, and practically every other aspect of thoroughbred racing, so I can spot the weak favorites for you and provide a horse that has the best value potential.
This formula works and will surpass what your investment will be. With a long-term approach, this system never fails.
I hope that you are willing to take the ride with me because I promise you it will bring you rewards. Whether you join me or not, I guarantee I will be making the same bets I’m recommending.